Clarify what the date will be used for:
“Is this for internal planning, or will it be communicated as a customer commitment? I can give a provisional planning range, but validation is still open.”
If no defensible estimate exists:
“I don't have enough evidence to give a reliable finish date. By 14:00 UTC we should know whether the proposed fix addresses the issue. I’ll update you then, including if the test is inconclusive.”
Do not confuse confidence in your communication with certainty about the work. You can be direct about an unknown.
For external conversations, see
how to explain a technical problem to a client.